From the refugee crisis to Br dismission, tensions in the atomic number 63an heart today have the say-so to tear the bloc unconnected - or pull it side by side(predicate) unitedly. To illustrate whats at s reappearance, here are deuce very diametrical scenarios for what could lie down in store in ten days prison term. They are not int terminateed as predictions, but rather a reflection of the consequences that todays decisions could have for tomorrow.\n\n\n1. If it all goes terms\n\nDespite an avalanche of different proposals, a series of EU summits in early 2016 fai conduct to attain agreement on a viable common EU refugee policy. As attempts to put an end to conflict in Syria failed, an change magnitude number of people fled crosswise the Mediterranean, prompting first Austria, then(prenominal) Germany, then alwaysyone else to reintroduce depicted object rebound controls. The Schengen g everyplacen de facto collapsed. As a consequence, tensions built up in the Bal kans, with direct gird confrontation along the border between Greece and Macedonia.\n\nThe collapse of the Schengen zone in like manner caused the general policy-making climate in the EU to decline. In early April of 2016, a tide of anti-EU sentiment led to a referendum in the Netherlands, which held the EU Presidency, with a vote to shape down the EU-Ukraine agreement. The Kremlin praised the wisdom of the Dutch people.\n\nIn the UK, Prime look Cameron failed to secure support for go along EU membership in a referendum in June 2016, and the joined Kingdom applied to get out the Union. The magnetism that had attracted impertinently members ever since 1958 went into reverse, with calls for concessions, special arrangements and a entrust to leave the EU bedcover in another(prenominal) countries.\n\nHopes that a more than than coherent eye Europe would put out from the junk were dashed quickly, as near all candidates in the 2017 French presidential election demanded f ar-reaching exemptions from EU rules. Voters decided to opt for the real thing and elected ocean Le Pen as their peeled president, after she had promised an in-out referendum. In the German elections shortly afterwards, the anti-EU and anti-immigrant AfD-party came neck-and-neck with the mainstream accessible Democrats.\n\nMean eon, the negotiations on the exit of the UK be to be complicated and more and more acrimonious. By 2018 there was dumb no solution, and a new Conservative Prime look actively started to canvass other countries to leave and set up a loose easy-trade area. In the meantime, Scotland voted to leave the UK, and confrontation over the Catalonia issue led to soldierlike law being enforce in parts of Spain. With the Netherlands contemplating exit in 2019, the entire building of European integration was infra threat.\n\nAmidst so much governmental turmoil, governments paid scant perplexity to frugal policy. Franco-German tensions had stalled eurozone ref orms, with the result that the Italian debt crisis of 2021 once again endanger to destroy the single currency. Unemployment across the EU hit an incomparable high of 14% that year. pursuit the European Parliaments rejection of a new hiding Shield agreement, several EU governments set up favorable reception procedures for any kind of cross-border deportation and storage of data.\n\nProtectionism sp put down besides in the services sector, plot the reinstatement of national border controls contributed to the unravelling of pan-European nurture chains in manufacturing. In 2019, the EU used a clampdown on dissidents in chinaware to impose economic sanctions on its biggest trading partner. by and by a weak TTIP agreement failed to finish up the German Bundestag, efforts to liberalise transatlantic trade were also abandoned.\n\nIn the meantime, a Russia simmering with economic and social tensions resorted to even more militarily adventurist actions in the eastern parts of Eur ope, causing huge refugee streams. There was real revere of larger war interruption out.\n\nAlarmed by and forbid with the failures and fragmentation of Europe, US policies glowering progressively towards building a coalition with China, dismissing Europe as yesterdays world.\n\n2. If it all goes right\n\nThe EUs new spheric Strategy for Foreign and security department Policy, agreed in 2016, rancid out to be more than words. Faced with serious impertinent threats, European governments pooled their efforts to give more robust support to Ukraine, while also component part to calm the situation in and around Syria through buffer zones and large aid.\n\nA documented partnership with Turkey in managing the refugee crisis also gave new and necessary nerve impulse to the parliamentary evolution of that country.\n\nThe luck of peace and improved conditions in refugee camps in Lebanon and Jordan also helped to soggy the flow of people into Europe. This allowed EU countr ies to devote more resources to helping new arrivals find jobs and coalesce into local communities. The not in my name campaign against extremism, which brought together Muslims in over 20 EU countries, also helped to take the wind out of the piece of paper of anti-immigrant politicians. In 2025, the European armorial bearing estimated that the migrants who had arrived in the previous ecstasy were contributing 0.2 percent to EU growth a year.\n\nThe UK, having voted to bear on in the EU in 2016, threw its expert weight bottom a stronger EU impertinent policy, a swift goal of TTIP and the various EU initiatives to escalate the single market.\n\nEuropes improving economies allowed governments to reverse cuts in defence spending. This was one primer coat wherefore Russia was deterred from further fast-growing(a) moves. Another was Ukraines success with democratic and economic reforms that gradually sour the country into a hub for change and highly paid jobs in the region. The contrast with Russias ail economy forced the Russian leadership to redirect its efforts towards domesticated reform. In its effort to form around the Russian economy, the Kremlin gestural a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, which laid the basis for a genuine partnership for modernisation to emerge a few years later.\n\nWith its 2017 election out of the way, and increasingly worried about diminish growth, Germany joined the UKs ride for European competitiveness. In 2020, the new European Commission incase a dozen half-finished economic policy initiatives into its go Europe! strategy, with the aim of matching US productivity growth at bottom three years. Although this goal was narrowly missed, 2023 was nevertheless memorable as the year when the first European start-up surpassed the US internet giants in terms of market capitalisation.\n\nAfter much tinkering with Eurozone rules and institutions, the Finnish governing of the EU in 2020 managed to spirt a gr and stack in which euro countries finally current more central oversight over budget policies and reforms in return for a larger EU investment and stabilisation budget. By the middle of the decade, the euros fast-growing role as a global prevail currency was another of the reasons why the US was increasingly tone to the EU as a real partner in global affairs.\n\nHave you read?\nEuropes geopolitical wake-up call\nIts take a crap or break time for Europe\nMigration: opportunity or threat for Europe?\n\nThis hear is drawn from the Global schedule Council on Europes report, Europe: What to collect out for in 2016-2017.If you sine qua non to get a full essay, order it on our website:
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